{"id":1313,"date":"2023-10-27T10:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-10-27T02:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tuzi517.net\/?p=1313"},"modified":"2023-10-23T23:23:39","modified_gmt":"2023-10-23T15:23:39","slug":"kg%e5%a8%9b%e6%a8%82%e5%9f%8e%e7%99%be%e5%ae%b6%e6%94%bb%e7%95%a5%ef%bc%9a1%e5%88%86%e9%90%98%e5%bf%ab%e9%80%9f%e6%8e%8c%e6%8f%a1%e6%9c%9f%e6%9c%9b%e5%80%bc%e5%92%8c%e8%b3%a0%e7%8e%87%ef%bc%81","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tuzi517.net\/kg%e5%a8%9b%e6%a8%82%e5%9f%8e%e7%99%be%e5%ae%b6%e6%94%bb%e7%95%a5%ef%bc%9a1%e5%88%86%e9%90%98%e5%bf%ab%e9%80%9f%e6%8e%8c%e6%8f%a1%e6%9c%9f%e6%9c%9b%e5%80%bc%e5%92%8c%e8%b3%a0%e7%8e%87%ef%bc%81\/","title":{"rendered":"KG\u5a1b\u6a02\u57ce\u767e\u5bb6\u653b\u7565\uff1a1\u5206\u9418\u5feb\u901f\u638c\u63e1\u671f\u671b\u503c\u548c\u8ce0\u7387\uff01"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\u767e\u5bb6\u6a02\u653b\u7565<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

1. \u671f\u671b\u503c\uff08Expected Value\uff09<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u671f\u671b\u503c\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u95dc\u9375\u7684\u6578\u5b78\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u7528\u65bc\u8a55\u4f30\u6bcf\u500b\u4e0b\u6ce8\u9078\u9805\u7684\u9577\u671f\u50f9\u503c\u3002\u5728\u767e\u5bb6\u6a02\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f7f\u7528\u671f\u671b\u503c\u4f86\u5224\u65b7\u67d0\u500b\u4e0b\u6ce8\u9078\u9805\u662f\u5426\u5177\u6709\u5229\u6f64\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u662f\u5426\u6709\u52a9\u65bc\u6700\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u5730\u6e1b\u5c11\u640d\u5931\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u671f\u671b\u503c\u7684\u8a08\u7b97\u65b9\u6cd5\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a \u671f\u671b\u503c = \uff08\u6bcf\u500b\u53ef\u80fd\u7d50\u679c\u7684\u6a5f\u7387 \u00d7 \u9019\u500b\u7d50\u679c\u7684\u56de\u5831\uff09 – \u6295\u6ce8\u91d1\u984d \u9996\u5148\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u9700\u8981\u78ba\u5b9a\u6bcf\u500b\u53ef\u80fd\u7d50\u679c\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\uff0c\u7136\u5f8c\u5c07\u5b83\u8207\u8a72\u7d50\u679c\u7684\u56de\u5831\u76f8\u4e58\uff0c\u6700\u5f8c\u518d\u6e1b\u53bb\u60a8\u7684\u6295\u6ce8\u91d1\u984d\u3002
\u8b93\u6211\u5011\u900f\u904e\u5be6\u969b\u4f8b\u5b50\u4f86\u7406\u89e3\u9019\u4e00\u6982\u5ff5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\nIn probability theory, the expected value (also called expectation, expectancy, expectation operator, mathematical expectation, mean, average, or first moment) is a generalization of the weighted average. Informally, the expected value is the arithmetic mean of a large number of independently selected outcomes of a random variable.

Since it is obtained through arithmetic, the expected value sometimes may not even be included in the sample data set; it is not the value you would “expect” to get in reality. The expected value of a random variable with a finite number of outcomes is a weighted average of all possible outcomes. In the case of a continuum of possible outcomes, the expectation is defined by integration. In the axiomatic foundation for probability provided by measure theory, the expectation is given by Lebesgue integration.
(\u8cc7\u6599\u4f86\u6e90<\/a>)<\/cite><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5be6\u4f8b 1\uff1a\u4e0b\u6ce8\u838a\u5bb6\u8d0f<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

\u5047\u8a2d\u60a8\u5728\u767e\u5bb6\u6a02\u4e2d\u4e0b\u6ce8\u838a\u5bb6\u8d0f\uff0c\u4e26\u4e14\u4e0b\u6ce8\u91d1\u984d\u70ba100\u5143\u3002\u5728\u4e00\u5834\u6bd4\u8cfd\u4e2d\uff0c\u6709\u4e09\u7a2e\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u7d50\u679c\uff1a\u838a\u5bb6\u8d0f\u3001\u73a9\u5bb6\u8d0f\u3001\u6216\u662f\u5e73\u5c40\u3002\u6211\u5011\u77e5\u9053\u4e0b\u6ce8\u838a\u5bb6\u7684\u8ce0\u7387\u901a\u5e38\u70ba1\u6bd41\uff0c\u4f46\u6709\u4e00\u500b\u4f63\u91d1\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u662f5\uff05\u3002
\u73fe\u5728\u8b93\u6211\u5011\u8a08\u7b97\u4e0b\u6ce8\u838a\u5bb6\u7684\u671f\u671b\u503c\uff1a <\/p>\n\n\n\n


– \u838a\u5bb6\u8d0f\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\uff1a\u8b93\u6211\u5011\u5047\u8a2d\u838a\u5bb6\u8d0f\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u662f49.32\uff05\uff0c\u9019\u662f\u6839\u64da\u7d71\u8a08\u8a08\u7b97\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u52dd\u7387\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

– \u838a\u5bb6\u8d0f\u7684\u56de\u5831\uff1a\u7531\u65bc\u4e0b\u6ce8\u838a\u5bb6\u7684\u8ce0\u7387\u662f1\u6bd41\uff0c\u4f46\u67095\uff05\u7684\u4f63\u91d1\uff0c\u5be6\u969b\u56de\u5831\u70ba0.95\u6bd41\u3002
\u73fe\u5728\uff0c
\u6211\u5011\u53ef\u4ee5\u8a08\u7b97\u671f\u671b\u503c\uff1a \u671f\u671b\u503c = (0.4932 \u00d7 0.95) \u00d7 100 – 100 = -4.68 \u9019\u500b\u671f\u671b\u503c\u70ba-4.68\u5143\uff0c\u9019\u8868\u793a\u5728\u9577\u671f\u5167\uff0c\u6bcf\u6b21\u4e0b\u6ce8\u838a\u5bb6\u8d0f\uff0c\u60a8\u53ef\u4ee5\u9810\u671f\u5e73\u5747\u640d\u59314.68\u5143\u3002\u9019\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u8ca0\u7684\u671f\u671b\u503c\uff0c\u9019\u610f\u5473\u8457\u4e0b\u6ce8\u838a\u5bb6\u8d0f\u5728\u9577\u671f\u5167\u4e0d\u592a\u53ef\u80fd\u8cfa\u5230\u9322\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

2. \u8ce0\u7387\uff08Odds\uff09<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u8ce0\u7387\u662f\u53e6\u4e00\u500b\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u6578\u5b78\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u5b83\u7528\u4f86\u8868\u793a\u4e0b\u6ce8\u9078\u9805\u7684\u6f5b\u5728\u56de\u5831\u3002\u8ce0\u7387\u901a\u5e38\u4ee5\u5206\u6578\u6216\u6bd4\u4f8b\u7684\u5f62\u5f0f\u5448\u73fe\uff0c\u4f8b\u59822\u6bd41\u30013\u6bd42\u7b49\u3002\u8ce0\u7387\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u8d0f\u5f97\u4e0b\u6ce8\u6240\u9700\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u548c\u6f5b\u5728\u56de\u5831\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5be6\u4f8b 2\uff1a\u4e0b\u6ce8\u5e73\u5c40<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

\u8b93\u6211\u5011\u770b\u4e00\u500b\u5be6\u4f8b\uff0c\u5047\u8a2d\u60a8\u60f3\u4e0b\u6ce8\u5e73\u5c40\uff0c\u4e26\u4e14\u4e0b\u6ce8\u91d1\u984d\u70ba100\u5143\u3002\u901a\u5e38\uff0c\u4e0b\u6ce8\u5e73\u5c40\u7684\u8ce0\u7387\u70ba8\u6bd41\u3002\u9019\u8868\u793a\u5982\u679c\u60a8\u8d0f\u5f97\u4e0b\u6ce8\uff0c\u60a8\u5c07\u7372\u5f978\u500d\u7684\u734e\u91d1\uff0c\u5373800\u5143\u3002
\u73fe\u5728\uff0c\u8b93\u6211\u5011\u8a08\u7b97\u4e0b\u6ce8\u5e73\u5c40\u7684\u671f\u671b\u503c\uff1a \u671f\u671b\u503c = (0.095 \u00d7 8) \u00d7 100 – 100 = -4.4 \u9019\u500b\u671f\u671b\u503c\u70ba-4.4\u5143\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u8ca0\u7684\u671f\u671b\u503c\u3002\u9019\u8868\u793a\u4e0b\u6ce8\u5e73\u5c40\u5728\u9577\u671f\u5167\u5e73\u5747\u6703\u640d\u59314.4\u5143\u3002\u96d6\u7136\u8ce0\u7387\u8f03\u9ad8\uff0c\u4f46\u7531\u65bc\u5e73\u5c40\u7684\u7d50\u679c\u76f8\u5c0d\u7f55\u898b\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u671f\u671b\u503c\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u8ca0\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5982\u4f55\u5728KG<\/a>\u5a1b\u6a02\u57ce\u61c9\u7528\u671f\u671b\u503c\u548c\u8ce0\u7387\u65bc\u904a\u6232\u4e2d<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u4e86\u89e3\u671f\u671b\u503c\u548c\u8ce0\u7387\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u6709\u52a9\u65bc\u60a8\u5728\u767e\u5bb6\u6a02\u4e2d\u505a\u51fa\u66f4\u660e\u667a\u7684\u4e0b\u6ce8\u6c7a\u7b56\u3002\u4e00\u822c\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u4e0b\u6ce8\u5177\u6709\u8f03\u4f4e\u671f\u671b\u503c\u7684\u9078\u9805\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u66f4\u6709\u5229\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u5b83\u5011\u5728\u9577\u671f\u5167\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u640d\u5931\u8f03\u5c11\u3002
\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u8acb\u8a18\u4f4f\uff0c\u767e\u5bb6\u6a02\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u7d14\u7cb9\u7684\u904b\u6c23\u904a\u6232\uff0c\u4e26\u4e0d\u5b58\u5728\u767e\u5206\u4e4b\u767e\u7684\u5fc5\u52dd\u7b56\u7565\u3002\u671f\u671b\u503c\u548c\u8ce0\u7387\u50c5\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e00\u7a2e\u8a55\u4f30\u4e0b\u6ce8\u9078\u9805\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u800c\u7d50\u679c\u4ecd\u7136\u53d6\u6c7a\u65bc\u904b\u6c23\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5728\u904a\u6232\u4e2d\uff0c\u8b39\u614e\u7ba1\u7406\u60a8\u7684\u8cc7\u672c\uff0c\u8a2d\u5b9a\u8cc7\u672c\u4e0a\u9650\u548c\u640d\u5931\u4e0a\u9650\uff0c\u4e26\u5c07\u8ced\u535a\u8996\u70ba\u4e00\u7a2e\u5a1b\u6a02\u3002\u5b78\u7fd2\u5982\u4f55\u8a08\u7b97\u671f\u671b\u503c\u548c\u7406\u89e3\u8ce0\u7387\u662f\u63d0\u9ad8\u904a\u6232\u6280\u5de7\u548c\u66f4\u597d\u5730\u4eab\u53d7\u767e\u5bb6\u6a02\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u4e00\u6b65\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5ef6\u4f38\u95b1\u8b80: \u7dda\u4e0a\u535a\u5f08\u8207\u5be6\u9ad4\u8ced\u5834\u76844\u5c0d\u6bd4<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u767e\u5bb6\u6a02\u662f\u4e00\u6b3e\u5145\u6eff\u523a\u6fc0\u548c\u6a5f\u6703\u7684\u8ced\u535a\u904a\u6232\uff0c\u4f46\u8981\u5728\u9019\u500b\u904a\u6232\u4e2d\u9577\u671f\u53d6\u5f97\u6210\u529f\uff0c\u7406\u89e3\u6578\u5b78\u6982\u5ff5\u662f\u81f3\u95dc\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u3002KG\u5a1b\u6a02\u57ce\u5c07\u8a73\u7d30\u89e3\u91cb\u767e\u5bb6\u6a02\u4e2d\u7684\u6578\u5b78\u57fa\u790e\uff0c\u7279\u5225\u662f\u671f\u671b\u503c\u548c\u8ce0\u7387\u7684\u8a08\u7b97\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u4e26\u63d0\u4f9b\u5be6\u969b\u4f8b\u5b50\uff0c\u4ee5\u5e6b\u52a9\u73a9\u5bb6\u66f4\u597d\u5730\u7406\u89e3\u9019\u4e9b\u6982\u5ff5\u5982\u4f55\u61c9\u7528\u65bc\u904a\u6232\u4e2d\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1324,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rank_math_lock_modified_date":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[6,5,8,7,9],"class_list":{"0":"post-1313","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-kg","10":"tag-8","11":"tag-7","12":"tag-9"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/tuzi517.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1313"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/tuzi517.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/tuzi517.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tuzi517.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tuzi517.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1313"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/tuzi517.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1313\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1325,"href":"https:\/\/tuzi517.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1313\/revisions\/1325"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tuzi517.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1324"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/tuzi517.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1313"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tuzi517.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1313"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tuzi517.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1313"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}